When it comes to the labor market, and the economy overall, the signals are mixed. Unemployment is close to a 50-year low. And yet, news of layoffs continues. Fears of an impending recession remain. Employers are exercising caution, and in some cases even “slamming the brakes” on hiring, particularly hiring of knowledge workers.
According to anecdotal reports, knowledge workers say they are finding job searches increasingly onerous. Workers say they often can't tell which openings are actually ‘true’ job openings, and applying for roles can feel like “shouting into the void.”
Employers are still hiring in general -- in March, payrolls increased by 230,000 – but experts say there has been a “marked slowdown in hiring for many white-collar jobs as businesses gird for a possible recession.”
“Many businesses right now are just uncertain, either about the medium-term economic outlook, or they're concerned that their current employment levels are not aligned with where their business is headed.”
According to Indeed, listings for tech jobs dropped 55% from this time last year. Banking and insurance vacancies have fallen 40% and 18% respectively over the same period.
Experts say that while the job market is “very strong” at the “10,000-foot level,” the situation is very different when you zoom in on "different labor neighborhoods.”
Marketing roles, for one, are impacted by businesses looking to cut costs. So are “opportunities in corporate recruitment and human resources.”
Still, a recession may not be inevitable, given that “the economy is still expanding,” and consumer spending appears to be holding up relatively well.
Read more via CBS News, Indeed Hiring Lab
US jobless claims fell the week ending April 22, according to the latest data from the Labor Department.
The number of American workers who filed for unemployment fell to 230,000, down 16,000 from the week prior, according to the Labor Department.
The labor market “continues to show strength despite some weakness in other parts of the economy.”
Read more via ABC News
According to the latest survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), “capital spending plans fell during the first quarter and hiring slumped to a level that usually coincides with recession.”
The survey found fewer panelists are reporting “rising employment and capital spending,” signs that indicate a slowing economy.
Material costs and wages have increased, eroding gains from sales growth and impacting profit margins.
40% of survey respondents reported an increase in the prices they charge, compared to 46% in January.
However, 38% of respondents said they “expect to push up prices during the next three months,” up from 35% in January.
Just 22% of respondents reported increasing capital spending, down from 31% in January.
Respondents “see a 50-50 probability of a downturn,” according to the survey.
Read more via NABE
The Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 101.3 in April, down from 104 in March. The data show that consumers’ view of current business and labor market conditions improved, while consumers' short-term outlook fell.
The so-called Present Situation Index, which tracks consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased to 151.1 in April, from 148.9 in March.
The Expectations Index, tracking consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased to 68.1 in April, from 74.0 in March.
Consumers are “more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets,” according to the Conference Board.
Respondents said they “expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term.”
“While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,”
Read more via Conference Board
Increasing wage pressures over the last two years are resulting in “tenured employees in high-paying job groups“ making less money than new employees, according to a new report from Syndio. The wage compression “may threaten retention and employee engagement.”
83% of tenured employees in jobs with average salaries over $125,000 make the same as newly hired employees, according to the report.
In lower paying jobs (under $75,000), Syndio found that tenured employees’ pay compared to new workers varied depending on the role. In retail and manufacturing jobs, tenured workers tend to earn more than new employees, while in corporate support roles, pay “generally didn’t vary by tenure.”
“The reality is that we are in the pay transparency era and salary ranges are out in the open. Companies have to be prepared to publicly explain why there may be gaps between tenured and new employees."
Read more via Syndio, HR Dive
According to new research published by the ADP Research Institute, workers in the US and beyond are increasingly concerned about pay. ADP surveyed more than 32,000 workers in 17 countries.
61% of respondents said “salary is the most important factor in a job.”
62% of respondents said they received a raise last year (averaging 6.4%), yet 44% said they believe they are still underpaid for their job.
On average, respondents said they expect an 8.3% raise in 2023.
34% of respondents expect a raise of 10% or more in 2023.
While men reported receiving bigger raises than women, they were also “more inclined to say they’re not paid enough.“
Read more via ADP Research Institute
According to a new report from research firm DDI, “C-suite endorsement of company wide diversity, equity and inclusion efforts has decreased 18% in the past two years.”
The number of companies that did not offer DEI programs jumped from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2022.
DDI says the decline in support for DEI from the C-suite “has left many leaders, especially those who are women and from minority, racial and ethnic backgrounds, questioning their company and role.“
Read more via DDI, HR Dive
House Bill 1762 would require employers in Washington state to “shed more light on quotas set for warehouse workers.”
The new bill would require employers to be “transparent about their use of quotas with workers and safety regulators.” It also bars employers from instituting quotas that interfere with meal and rest breaks.
Quotas are defined as performance standards that require employees to work at a certain speed, or perform a certain number of tasks or handle a certain amount of material within a specific time period.
The new bill has passed in both chambers of the state legislature, and, if signed into law, would take effect in 2024.
Senate Bill 5217 is designed to expand the state's authority to make new rules for industries with high injury rates.
The bill “would repeal a current law that prevents the Department of Labor and Industries from adopting rules meant to better protect workers from musculoskeletal injuries and disorders.” The bill was signed into law in April and goes into effect in July 2023.
Read more via Seattle Times, WA State Legislature, Business Insurance
Last week, a key Senate committee voted to advance Julie Su, President Biden’s choice of labor secretary to replace Marty Walsh. Su enjoys wide support from Democrats, but has been criticized by Republicans for her endorsement and support of labor unions.
Read more via The Hill, CNN
Business groups including the US Chamber of Commerce are applauding a new proposed law they say would balance union, employee, and employer rights. The Employee Rights Act (ERA) aims to “achieve a balance between union rights, employee rights, and employer rights in labor organizing by making key changes to labor laws.” Supporters of the bill say it would be beneficial to employers and workers.
If passed, the ERA would “allow employees to vote for union representation in privacy, rather than in the presence of labor organizers or their employer.”
The bill would also “protect employees' privacy interests by limiting the amount of their personal contact information that must be disclosed to unions.”
According to proponents, the bill would also “establish clear standards for determining whether an individual may be classified as an employee or an independent contractor.”
Read more via HCA Mag, EmployeeRightsAct.com
According to CompTIA, mass layoffs in Silicon Valley haven't resulted in all the tech jobs drying up. Not by a longshot.
Tech jobs “remain plentiful”: There were “316,000 job openings in tech” as of March 2023, according to CompTIA.
Not all tech jobs are at tech companies: CompTIA reports that an “estimated 51% of technology workers are now employed by companies outside the tech industry.” Experts say, in a sense, that “every company is a tech company.” Over 80% of graduates in tech fields are finding full-time work within a year, and that full-time work is in tech. In many cases, graduates are landing tech roles at companies not traditionally considered tech companies, including Deloitte, JPMorgan Chase, and Capital One.
Read more via CompTIA, NPR
As manufacturers make their way through backlogs, economists say job cuts “could be on the horizon as soon as this year.”
According to a Wells Fargo analysis, “unfilled orders of core capital goods adjusted for inflation, or backlogs, are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels within the next five months.”
Economists predict that once backlogs are dealt with, and demand remains subdued, manufacturers will “begin to consider reducing their workforce.”
“We’re only seeing a gradual pullback in hiring for manufacturing, even as new demand slows, because these backlogs are still helping sustain activity."
Manufacturing activity deteriorated in April from the prior month as the pace of hiring slowed, according to a survey of manufacturers in the Federal Reserve’s Chicago district.
In February, manufacturing experienced job losses for the first time in 21 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Additional job losses in manufacturing followed in March.
Because the labor market remains tight, and finding workers is still a struggle, companies are hesitant to shed workers.
“Given how difficult it has been to find labor and keep it, manufacturing companies are going to do everything they can to try to avoid layoffs. But I think they can only do that for so long, so they will eventually have to bite the bullet and start laying people off.”
Read more via CNN, Reuters
Germany: The German government has reached a deal with unionized public workers. The agreement impacts more than 2.5 million public-sector workers, and marks the end of a “lengthy dispute" that many feared would result in all-out strikes. The union was pushing for “hefty raises” amid high inflation. The agreement entitles workers to “tax-free one-time payments totaling 3,000 euros ($3,300).” (DW, Associated Press)
Italy: Italy is planning legislation to make the process of hiring short-term contract workers easier. The move is part of a “set of measures aimed at boosting jobs and families' purchasing power, including tax cuts for middle- and low- income workers.” Italy's prime minister has convened a cabinet meeting to approve the new legislation on May 1, International Workers' Day. (Reuters)
United Kingdom: According to a new report from the Resolution Foundation, UK employers are “skimping on pay and time off for at least 1 million workers,” and in doing so are “short changing some of the poorest people in society by £255 million ($318 million).” The new report accuses employers of “flouting labor laws” and says they are calling on UK government officials to “step up oversight” and bring companies into compliance. (Bloomberg)
